The June WTI (CLM25) contract settled at 62.79 (+0.52) [+0.84%], high of 63.31, low of 61.99. Spot price is 62.24 (-1.44). Open interest for CLM25 is 300,434. CLM25 settled below its 5 day (63.02), below its 20 day (64.00), below its 50 day (66.52), below its 100 day (68.46), below its 200 day (69.10) and below its year-to date (68.51) moving averages. 

The June Brent Crude (QAM25) contract settled at 66.55 (+0.43) [+0.65%], high of 67.03, low of 65.81. Spot Brent price is 66.11 (-1.33). QAM25 settled below its 5 day (66.85), below its 20 day (67.82), below its 50 day (70.21), below its 100 day (72.08), below its 200 day (73.07) and below its year-to-date (72.13) moving averages.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report (Net Futures and Options Summary) as of 4/15/25 showed Commercials with a net short position of -187,774 (a increase in short positions by 3,136 from the previous week) and Non-Commercials who are net long +176,202 (a increase in long positions by 7,095 from the previous week)

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Reuters reported that several OPEC+ members are expected to propose an increase in oil production for June, according to sources familiar with the matter. The group of eight OPEC+ countries is scheduled to meet on May 5 to finalize their output plan for June. These eight OPEC+ members previously agreed to raise oil production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in May.

President Donald Trump said the current 145% tariff rate on China “will come down substantially, but it won’t be zero”. Yesterday,  a senior White House official said the China tariffs were likely to come down to between 50-60%. 

North Dakota’s Oil and Gas Regulators said oil prices are near breakeven levels for the state’s producers. The director of the state’s Department of Mineral Resources said shale producers face breakeven prices in the $50-$60 range. North Dakota, the third largest oil producer in the US, last reported a rig count of 32. In February oil production fell by 11,000 barrels per day compared to January’s production, producing a total of 1.164 million bdp. 

Russia has lowered its forecast for oil and gas export revenues for 2025–2027, citing weaker oil prices as the reason for a projected 15% drop in energy earnings this year, according to an Economy Ministry document seen by Reuters. The Ministry also revised its 2025 oil production outlook downward to 10.32 million barrels per day, unchanged from 2024 levels and slightly below its previous estimate of 518.6 million tons. Russia’s Economy Ministry also lowered its 2025 forecast for the average price of Brent crude by nearly 17% compared to its previous September estimate for this year, the Interfax news agency reported Monday.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday lowered its growth forecasts for the US, China, and most other countries, citing the impact of US tariffs. The IMF now expects global growth to slow to 2.8% in 2025, down 0.5% from its January forecast, and to 3% in 2026. The US growth outlook was cut by 0.9% to 1.8% in 2025, a steep decline from the 2.8% projected for 2024. US growth for 2026 was revised down by 0.4 point to 1.7%. China’s growth forecast was reduced to 4% for both 2025 and 2026, reflecting downward revisions of 0.6% for 2025 and 0.5% for 2026. 

The US Energy Administration Administration report for the week ending April 18, 2025 showed an inventory build of +244,000 barrels, a large divergence from the API’s estimate of a -4.564 million barrel draw. Gasoline stocks had a draw of -4.5 million barrels, while daily production increased to an average of 10.1 million barrels. Distillates had a draw of -2.4 million barrels, while production averaged 4.6 million bpd. The Cushing, Oklahoma hub had a draw of -86,000 barrels, less than the API estimate of a draw of -354,000 barrels. 

The latest Baker Hughes Rig Count showed U.S. oil rigs increased by 1 rig, to a total of 481, 30 rigs lower than this time last year. U.S. gas rigs increased by 1, to a total of 98. 

Price Thoughts - Another week where forecast API and official EIA data completely diverged, with the EIA reporting a small US inventory build compared to API’s sizable draw. Oil prices have also came under pressure from the OPEC rumor that members will propose reducing their output cuts in July, on top of the other bearish news of progress in the Ukraine-Russia truce (although there was some retreating today via-Crimea disputes), and possible sanctions on Iran coming offline in the near term in pursuit of a US-Iran nuclear deal. 

 Crude may continue to trade in its near-term range of $59-$63 for WTI and $67-$61 for Brent until positive headlines generate, as the tighter supply/demand situation has taken a backseat to the macroeconomic picture. 

Technically short-term resistance is $63 (which we settled below to the downside today) and the $59 handle is supportive in the front months for WTI, while Brent has traded in a range of $67 (which we settled below to the downside today) and $61. Above that $63 resistance for WTI - $65 looks to be the next hurdle to clear, and for Brent above $67 would be that round figure $70. As I always say, this market is currently heavily influenced by the headlines first and foremost, and the weekly US EIA reports to a lesser degree. 

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Jim Rinaudo

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Walsh Trading

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